Printed from: www.stevespelde.com

Market Commentary – September 20, 2011

Executive Summary

AllianceBernstein – Three Scenarios for Greece

In the attached article entitled, "Three Scenarios for Greece", the AllianceBernstein team discusses the need for change in the Eurozone’s institutional structure, perhaps the creation of a parallel fiscal union, or a change to its membership.

The piece discusses two trigger points for Greece:

  • Disbursement of the sixth tranche of funding under the existing bilateral loan facility
  • Agreement on the second rescue package negotiated between Greece and the rest of the Eurozone membership on July 21.

Three broad outcome scenarios:
  • Continuation of current "muddling through"
  • An orderly write-off of Greek government debt
  • A disorderly default.

In discussing the risk of contagion, the team discusses two different perceptions of the situation:
  • Much of the financial instability is being caused by the perception that the Eurozone is in denial regarding the reality of insolvency.
  • The Euro is a flawed experiment.

The team concludes by outlining why there is an increasingly urgent need for action.

 

The information is compiled by Cetera Financial Group. No independent analysis has been performed and the material should not be construed as investment advice. Investment decisions should not be based on this material since the information contained here is a singular news update, and prudent investment decisions require the analysis of a much broader collection of facts and context. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. Please consult your financial advisor for more information.

While diversification may help reduce volatility and risk, it does not guarantee future performance.

Securities and insurance products are offered by PRIMEVEST Financial Services, Inc., a registered broker/dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC. PRIMEVEST Financial Services is unaffiliated with the financial institution where investment services are offered. Investment products are * Not FDIC/NCUSIF insured *May lose value *Not bank guaranteed *Not a deposit * Not insured by any federal government agency.